23 Oct against the gods book review
Thomas Piketty Against this, Piketty arrives at a proposed system that, among other things, would redistribute wealth across societies by heavy taxation, especially of inheritances, to create a “participatory socialism” in which power is widely shared and trade across nations is truly free. The most interesting part of this discussion is Bernstein's presentation of the path-breaking work of Daniel Kahneman and the late Amos Tversky; they were experimental psychologists whose work, called "prospect theory," is often used by students of behavioral finance to explain a variety of financial anomalies.
I'll admit that this book sat on my reading-list for a while in fear that it might perhaps be too technical for a pre-sleep read. Instead, our system considers things like how recent a review is and if the reviewer bought the item on Amazon. | ; Hardcover $27.95 The thesis of this interesting and provocative book is that modern civilization is largely distin- We rely heavily, writes, on System 1, resorting to the higher-energy System 2 only when we need or want to. A dense but compelling model of how the world works. The probability that Mr. H would have won 4 or more of the remaining 9 flips, bringing the number of heads to at least 8 and earning him the full $100, is 0.7461. Disabling it will result in some disabled or missing features. 1900Louis Bachelier's doctoral dissertation, "The Theory of Speculation," laid the foundation for modern finance and provided the underpinnings for modern option pricing models, although it was poorly received by his professors at the Sorbonne. ―Worth
Categories: This book is itself a work of genius. This is an interesting treatise on uncertainty, probability and risk based on the Gods vs. Prometheus metaphor. PSYCHOLOGY. now offers general readers not just the findings of psychological research but also a better understanding of how research questions arise and how scholars systematically frame and answer them. Top subscription boxes – right to your door, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, See all details for Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, © 1996-2020, Amazon.com, Inc. or its affiliates. Pascal's Triangle answered the question by showing the proportions of probable outcomes at any given stage of a game.
The author of several scholarly texts, Kahneman (Emeritus Psychology and Public Affairs/Princeton Univ.) Reviewed in the United States on July 20, 2018. In Against the Gods, Peter Bernstein guides the reader through the risk term’s origins and development, ranging from the 13th century to the present day’s perception of said concept. Kahneman largely avoids jargon; when he does use some (“heuristics,” for example), he argues that such terms really ought to join our everyday vocabulary. But by the thirteenth century, new mental tools were in place the Hindu-Arabic numbering system, algebra, accounting, and other necessary equipment for the first insights into the laws of chance. I don't really know why because the way Bernstein presented the history of risk management through the history of math and, in particular, probability was truly amazing. Those insights came in the seventeenth century, in the analysis by Blaise Pascal, a dissolute who became a religious zealot, and Pierre de Fermat, a lawyer whose genius was in mathematics, of a gambling problem first proposed in the fifteenth century. Prime members enjoy FREE Delivery and exclusive access to music, movies, TV shows, original audio series, and Kindle books. Book Review- The Misfortunes of Prosperity, Book Review, The Motley Fool Investment Guide. He concurs with Keynes that probabilities exist; we simply do not know enough to find them. Gods serves as a prequel. Cycles of greed, treachery, pride, revenge repeat in a myriad of ways that are predictable and yet compelling to read for those who are looking for a straightforward, well written series.
Against the Gods sets up an ambitious premise and then delivers on it."
There is no norm, in other words, but Bernstein argues that this is cause for hope, rather than despair. 1654 The first use of probability analysis by Blaise Pascal, a brilliant mathematician, and Pierre de Fermat, lawyer and mathematics hobbyist, who jointly solved the problem of points. RELEASE DATE: Nov. 1, 2011. Daniel Kahneman translated by
Together with his highly successful predecessor, Capital Ideas The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street (The Free Press, New York, 1992), Bernstein has laid out a remarkably insightful and entertaining history of the "science" of finance, including fascinating descriptions of the people who drove the development of modern financial economics.
Modern risk theory dates from a little geometric model invented in 1654 called Pascal's Triangle, which Blaise Pascal used to address a perennial intellectual question: If two participants quit a game of chance before finishing, how is the pot divided? Bernoulli's solution introduced risk -- and aversion to risk -- into the language of decision making; it was the first statement of a fundamental axiom of economic theory, that diminishing returns prevail; and it is the foundation of the most widely applied theory of "rational" decision making--that economic agents maximize their expected utility, not their expected wealth.
How should the $100 be split?
This book provides a history of how key concepts of probability and statistics were developed and goes on to discuss Modern Portfolio Theory and behavioral finance. translated by The foundation for modern decision theory was laid. 1738 The analysis of risk as a factor shaping decisions emerged from the solution to the St. Petersburg paradox presented by Daniel Bernoulli, whose family of geniuses supports the thesis of Francis Galton's Hereditary Genius, that genius runs in the genes.
Fascinating read with lots of great little stories!!
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